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Slovak joblessness to increase in 2010 say analysts

Economic analysts expect joblessness in Slovakia to rise in the coming months despite the fact that the unemployment rate stayed flat on a monthly basis at 12.4 percent in November on the back of a gradual recovery in exports and industry, according to a poll of economists taken by TASR.

Economic analysts expect joblessness in Slovakia to rise in the coming months despite the fact that the unemployment rate stayed flat on a monthly basis at 12.4 percent in November on the back of a gradual recovery in exports and industry, according to a poll of economists taken by TASR.

“You shouldn't underestimate the risk that the turn of the year could feature an administrative postponement of decisions to optimise costs, including those on employment, to the start of January,” said Volksbank Slovensko Research chief analyst Vladimír Vano, indicating that the slowdown in new redundancies towards the end of 2009 could be followed by a dramatic surge in 2010.

UniCredit Bank Slovakia macro-analyst David Dereník thinks that enterprises have already dismissed as many people as they needed to in order to adjust to lower demand. He also noted that some firms continue to report redundancies, however.

Poštová Bank analyst Jana Mrvová views the November unemployment figure as stabilisation to a certain extent if not a turn-around. “Although compared to October of this year the unemployment rate hasn't risen, it's a 4.6-percent increase compared to November a year ago,” he said.

“Even though the Slovak economy is on the right track of a return to gradual expansion, the race to improve the state of the labour market is far away from completion,” said Vano for TASR. TASR

Compiled by Zuzana Vilikovská from press reports
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