GDP growth in 4Q11 brings some optimism for 2012

The surprisingly high growth recorded in Slovakia's GDP for the final quarter of 2011 (3.4 percent year-on-year) brings a more optimistic outlook for 2012, the Slovak central bank (NBS) indicated in a statement released on February 15, the TASR newswire reported. "When hypothetically counting on maintaining the GDP output of 4Q 2011 throughout 2012, with the quarter-on-quarter dynamics staying zero, Slovakia's economy may rise by 1 percent y-o-y in 2012," the NBS stated, as quoted by TASR, while adding that if the latest trends of falling receipts in retail and the deterioration of consumer trust continue the country's economic output will decline. The ongoing process of consolidation of public finances will not aid enhanced consumption and the only factor that may contribute towards growth is investment by private companies but this is not expected to increase, the NBS wrote.

The surprisingly high growth recorded in Slovakia's GDP for the final quarter of 2011 (3.4 percent year-on-year) brings a more optimistic outlook for 2012, the Slovak central bank (NBS) indicated in a statement released on February 15, the TASR newswire reported.

"When hypothetically counting on maintaining the GDP output of 4Q 2011 throughout 2012, with the quarter-on-quarter dynamics staying zero, Slovakia's economy may rise by 1 percent y-o-y in 2012," the NBS stated, as quoted by TASR, while adding that if the latest trends of falling receipts in retail and the deterioration of consumer trust continue the country's economic output will decline. The ongoing process of consolidation of public finances will not aid enhanced consumption and the only factor that may contribute towards growth is investment by private companies but this is not expected to increase, the NBS wrote.

There is a possibility for higher-than-expected growth in Slovakia's GDP in 2012, according to a Finance Ministry statement also released on February 15. "The published data have introduced positive factors to the latest macroeconomic prognosis for 2012, which counts on 1.1-percent growth in 2012," stated Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Jaroš, as quoted by TASR. The most recent ministry prognosis for the fourth quarter was only 0.3-percent growth while the European Commission had predicted no growth in the quarter. The eurozone recorded a fall in aggregated GDP of 0.3 percent in the quarter. Slovakia's most important foreign trading partners, Germany and the Czech Republic, also saw declines in their fourth quarter GDPs.

Analysts were surprised by the preliminary estimate in GDP growth. "Our estimates were indicating a significantly slower pace of growth, just over the 2-percent mark," Poštová Banka’s analyst Eva Sadovská told TASR. She believes the Slovak economy was boosted particularly by foreign demand in 4Q11. UniCredit Bank’s chief economist Vladimír Zlacký said the NBS figures show that the Slovak economy enjoys a relative amount of resistance to deceleration in Western Europe. He expects a further recovery in economic growth this year after a weaker first quarter.

Source: TASR

Compiled by Zuzana Vilikovská from press reports
The Slovak Spectator cannot vouch for the accuracy of the information presented in its Flash News postings.

Get daily Slovak news directly to your inbox

Top stories

Threats have worked. People queued for COVID testing before the official start

The nationwide testing in Slovakia started with four districts in the north. Here is a report from the first day in Orava.

Bardejov

Day two of pilot testing in hardest-hit regions is off to a smoother start

PM Igor Matovič and Health Minister Marek Krajčí are helping the sampling teams, too.

Trstená, the Tvrdošín district

No test, no work. Employees will have to take paid or unpaid leave

Those who will be quarantined with a positive test result will be entitled to pandemic sick leave.

Illustrative stock photo

Autumn holidays change, art schools close too

The ministry will contribute to schools to buy computers and other equipment for distance learning.

Illustrative stock photo