THE COMPOSITION of Slovakia’s new parliament after the March 10 election might be quite different from previous ballots, where citizens often saw many of the same faces re-enter parliament. Recent opinions polls taking the pulse of voters indicate that some newly-established parties may take some parliamentary seats, while several parties on the political scene for decades might find themselves outside the doors of parliament.
The most recent poll, conducted during the second week of February by the MVK agency, reported that the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKÚ), the largest party in the current four-party government, would fall under the 5-percent threshold required to enter parliament as it had the support of only 4.3 percent of those polled, the TASR newswire reported on February 17.
The opposition Smer party had the support of 40.6 percent of those polled, translating into 84 seats in the 150-member parliament. The Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) followed with 12.7-percent support (26 seats), then Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO) with 7 percent (15 seats), Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) with 6.1 percent (13 seats) and Most-Híd with 5.9 percent (12 seats).
In addition to the SDKÚ, two other well-known parties in Slovakia, the Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK) and the Slovak National Party (SNS), would not reach parliament according to this poll – though both were hovering around the 5-percent threshold, as was a new party, 99 Percent – Civic Voice. The other 17 parties running in the election did not have more than 2 percent support in the poll, TASR wrote.
Though a poll conducted by the Polis agency for TV news channel TA3 during the first week of February suggested that the SDKÚ would in fact make it into parliament after March 10, it too indicated that voter support for the party of former prime minister Mikuláš Dzurinda had fallen significantly and that it had the backing of only 5.1 percent of those polled, the SITA newswire reported.
The poll, for TA3, found that 40.8 percent would vote for Smer and that if this were repeated in the March 10 election the party would get 81 seats in parliament, allowing it to form a government without any coalition partners.
The KDH placed second in this poll as well with 9.8 percent support (19 seats), followed by Most-Híd with 8.4 percent (17 seats), SaS with 6.6 percent (13 seats), the SDKÚ with 5.1 percent (10 seats), and OĽaNO with 5.0 percent (10 seats).
The Polis poll had SNS drawing the support of only 4.6 percent of those surveyed, followed by the SMK with 3.9 percent, the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) with 3.4 percent, and 99 Percent – Civic Voice with 3.3 percent.
Rather different results emerged from a poll conducted by the Focus agency in the first week of February on behalf of Radio and Television of Slovakia (RTVS), SITA reported. This found that both OĽaNO and 99 Percent – Civic Voice had more support than all but one of the four parties currently in government. OĽaNO received 8.9-percent support among those polled, which would translate into 16 seats in parliament, followed by 99 Percent – Civic Voice with 6.9 percent (13 seats).
Smer again had the largest support in this poll with 37.3 percent (69 seats), followed by the KDH with 10.3 percent (19 seats), the SDKÚ with 6.1 percent, Most-Híd with 6 percent and SaS with 5.9 percent. The latter three parties would each get 11 seats in parliament.
The Focus poll also suggested that the SNS and SMK are unlikely to reach parliament, with the SNS polling 4.2 percent and the SMK 2.4-percent.
SITA reported that a surprise in this poll was the 3.5-percent support recorded by the Free Word Party headed by Nora Mojsejová.