“The foreign trade balance should remain in significant surplus this year, but the surpluses should be gradually reduced compared with the previous year,” Ľubomír Koršňák, analyst with UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, wrote in a memo.
The total export of goods amounted to €5.5322 billion in April, up by 1 percent compared to the previous year, while the total import of goods rose by 0.6 percent year-on-year to €5.1797 billion. The foreign trade balance was in surplus, amounting to €352.4 million, which is by €24.3 million more than in April 2014, the Statistics Office reported
During the first months of the year, the total export of goods rose by 2.4 percent y/y to €22.1136 billion and the total import by 2.3 percent y/y to €20.4062 billion. The foreign trade balance was in surplus, at €1.7075 billion, up by €69.2 million compared to the same period in 2014, according to the statistics.
April brought a more significant month-on-month drop in the number of exports and imports, even after seasonal adjustment. The dynamics of the annual growth thus dropped from 9.3 percent to 1 percent in case of exports, and from 7.4 percent to 0.6 percent in regard to imports, according to Koršnák.
He also pointed to the revision of the foreign trade surplus in the first quarter of the year, down by €122 million. The 12-month surplus in April remained unchanged at the revised 6.2 percent of GDP, the analyst continued.
The drop could, however, be only a correction of relatively strong March numbers which were drawn mostly by pre-Easter purchases and pre-production, meaning that April made the numbers more accurate, Koršnák explained.
The gradually restoring foreign demand, which should positively impact the export performance of the economy, should be fully compensated by the growth in imports (consumer, investment as well as energy).
“Based on our calculations the foreign trade surplus will thus drop this year from 6.2 percent in 2014 to 5.9 percent of GDP,” Koršňák added.
9. Jun 2015 at 13:20 | Compiled by Spectator staff