Slovakia braces for potential floods as torrential rain looms

Meteorologists across Central Europe are sounding alarms as models predict an unprecedented deluge in the coming days, raising the spectre of catastrophic floods reminiscent of the devastating inundations that struck the region in 2013. Experts from Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria, Poland, and Slovakia warn that the convergence of cold northern air with warm, moist currents from the Mediterranean is creating a volatile weather system that could unleash up to 500 litres of rain per square metre in some areas, writes iMeteo.sk.

Water management officials are taking no chances. Reservoirs in the Czech Republic have begun releasing water in anticipation of the torrential rains, which are expected to start tonight in the Alps and gradually spread across Central Europe. By Friday, heavy downpours will likely sweep through southeastern Poland, Slovakia, Austria, and parts of the Czech Republic, inundating mountain ranges like the Beskids (Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia), Jeseníky (Czech Republic), and the Little Carpathians (Slovakia). On the northern and northeastern slopes of these mountains, local rainfall could reach approximately 300 to 400 mm by Sunday.

Slovak Environment Minister Tomáš Taraba has announced that preparations for the extreme weather have started. Flood prevention measures are being prepared in Devín, a Bratislava borough situated by the Danube and Morava rivers.

At the Gabčíkovo Hydroelectric Power Plant, southern Slovakia, seven out of eight turbines will be put into operation.

According to Taraba, the army will be ready to provide support if necessary.

In total, up to 200 mm of rain is forecast to fall by Sunday, raising concerns about severe flooding, particularly in areas that were ravaged in 2013. Back then, the Danube River, which also runs through Bratislava, swelled to record levels, causing damage in Germany, Austria, and Slovakia. Officials fear a repeat scenario, with the Danube basin again at significant risk.

In addition, the water levels of the Morava River, which forms a border with Austria and Czechia, and the Váh River, the longest river in Slovakia, are expected to rise.

In 2023, Slovakia saw a remarkable total of 1003 mm of rainfall. This amount is considered significantly above average. In Bratislava, the Koliba meteorological station recorded a total of 895 mm of rainfall. The Letisko (airport) meteorological station recorded 732 mm of rainfall. However, the average annual rainfall at Bratislava airport is typically 575 mm.

Though uncertainties remain in the models, there is little doubt that southern Germany, Austria, Czechia, western Poland, and northwestern Slovakia will face the brunt of the storm and potentially severe flooding.

The Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMÚ) has already predicted a significant change in weather later this week, as temperatures are expected to plummet to around 10°C during the day.

Ensemble forecast of rainfall totals for the week of September 9-16 according to the ECMWF model. (source: SHMÚ)

“There is still high uncertainty regarding the specific totals for individual locations, but based on the probabilistic outputs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, it can be estimated that most of the rainfall will once again fall in the west and north of the [Slovak] territory,” stated SHMÚ on social media.

SHMÚ has already issued rain weather warnings for Thursday and Friday.

If forecasts hold, the region could see even more rainfall than during the 2013 floods, which were deemed a once-in-a-thousand-year event.