Presidential election poll suggests race is tightening

Ivan Korčok, who served as foreign minister under the last government, has almost closed the gap on Peter Pellegrini, the current speaker of parliament and leader of the Hlas party, in the race to become president, according to a pre-election survey by the AKO agency for private broadcaster TV Joj. The first round of the presidential election will take place on March 23.

The opinion poll, conducted between February 5 and 12 among 1,000 participants, indicates that among first-round candidates Pellegrini leads with 39 percent, followed closely by Korčok on 37.2 percent. Igor Matovič's last-minute entry into the race seems likely to have dented Korčok's support: Matovič, who was prime minister for some of the time that Korčok was foreign minister, recorded 4.8-percent support. Ján Kubiš, another former foreign minister, has 3-percent support, while other candidates range from 2.4 percent (Krisztián Forró) to 0.6 percent (Milan Náhlik).

According to AKO's findings, Korčok gained new supporters, but lost some to Matovič and another candidate, Patrik Dubovský, who is also being backed by the coalition of the Za Ľudí, Kresťanská Únia and Slovensko parties, which Matovič leads. Matovič's assurance upon launching his candidature – "I won't harm Ivan Korčok in the campaign" – does not, therefore, appear to be holding true.

Matovič's candidacy shifts election dynamics

"Igor Matovič likely erased a month of Ivan Korčok's campaign efforts," says AKO agency director Václav Hřích. Changes in support among Za Ľudí-Kresťanská Únia-Slovensko coalition voters show a shift from 64 percent supporting Korčok in January to only 35 percent in the current poll.

Matovič's candidacy influenced this shift, with about 2.4 percent now supporting historian Patrik Dubovský. Korčok lost approximately 4 percentage points in overall support due to this redirection. Matovič's ambition to attract conservative voters seems successful, but he still faces challenges in gaining support from other conservative parties' voters. He acknowledges that his chances of winning are low and suggests his post-first-round actions will depend on how much support he obtains. However, a potential endorsement of Korčok by Matovič may have limited impact, as only 53.8 percent of Matovič's first-round voters would follow such advice, according to AKO data.

Pellegrini holds second-round lead; Harabin's voters are undecided

When it comes to a likely second-round vote (in which only the top two candidates would remain), the AKO survey shows Pellegrini in the lead with 53.7 percent, ahead of Korčok on 46.3 percent. Supporters of third-place candidate Štefan Harabin, a controversial former justice minister, may impact the outcome. Despite Harabin's statement that he wouldn't advise supporting Pellegrini if he didn't make it to the second round, around 60 percent of his voters would still likely support Pellegrini, as per AKO data. Only 37 days remain until the presidential elections.