The likelihood of Slovakia being able to adopt the euro as scheduled on January 1, 2009 rose from 75 percent in November to 78 percent in December, a return to the record-high levels of the summer of 2007, according to the latest survey carried out by the Institute for Economic and Social Affairs (INEKO) in co-operation with the Club of Economic Analysts (KEA), SLOVAKIA was told by Peter Goliáš of INEKO.
The increase is seen as partly due to continued better economic management of the state than expected. According to the latest estimates, the public-finance deficit for 2007 should reach 2.5-percent of GDP, which is considerably lower than the Maastricht-criterion limit of 3 percent.
The analysts said that the likelihood of Slovakia meeting this criterion now stands at 90 percent. The chances of meeting the inflation criterion remain the most in doubt, dropping to 80 percent. This is mainly due to continuing concerns about the sustainability of low inflation after the changeover to the euro. [The overall probability figure is lower than these numbers because the Maastricht criteria aren't the only factors taken into consideration in the poll. - ed. note].
Eighteen out of the 23 analysts who took part in the survey also estimated the changeover conversion rate, with the average at 32.64 SKK/EUR, and individual estimates falling between 31.50-33.25 SKK/EUR. TASR
Compiled by Zuzana Vilikovská from press reports
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