(source: Sme)
The murder of investigative reporter Ján Kuciak and his partner Martina Kušnírová triggered a political crisis in Slovakia that will result in the early end of the government of Robert Fico. Slovakia is now awaiting the results of the coalition leaders' session about early elections.
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What has Most-Híd decided and why are early elections the most likely scenario?
What happens if the coalition partners do not agree on early elections?
What do Smer and SNS say?
What does the opposition say?
What does the parliament look like at the moment?
Who will be the most important players and what are the chances of Smer and its coalition partners in the elections?
What has Most-Híd decided and why are early elections the most likely scenario?
Most-Híd will leave the government if it fails to make a deal with its two coalition partners, Smer and the Slovak National Party (SNS), over early elections.
"If talks about early elections fail, Most-Híd will exit the ruling coalition," Bugár said.
Bugár alone told journalists on Tuesday night that even though both eventualities would lead to early elections in the end, there is a difference between the two for the coalition parties. If the three coalition parties, Smer, Most-Híd and SNS, agree to pass a constitutional law on shortening the election term (they need 90 votes in the parliament for that, hence opposition support will be required), they will be the ones to decide the date when the elections take place. Otherwise, the final decision on election day will remain with the president.
Political analyst Grigorij Mesežnikov from the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO) think tank sees early elections as an acceptable solution for Smer too, “because all the other options are worse”.
“This gives them a chance of stable work, albeit just for a short time, but Smer will still hold on to its strong power positions,” Mesežnikov told The Slovak Spectator.
What happens if the coalition partners do not agree on early elections?
In such a case, Most-Híd will leave the ruling coalition, which with all probability means the end of the coalition. The parliament will most probably express no confidence in the government, with the votes of the democratic opposition and Most-Híd. Robert Fico will not be able to put together enough votes in the parliament to win the MPs' support for a new cabinet. But neither would the opposition parties with Most.
